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Running Header: Leadership & Management, Analysis and Application – Research Project
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Leadership & Management, Analysis and Application – Research Project
Leadership & Management, Analysis and Application – Research Project
Table of Contents
Overview & Background    3
Two Works – Comparative Implications    5
Application of Superforecasting    6
Superforecasting: Implications of Widespread Use    6
Over-analysis: Pitfalls    7
Score-keeping System    8
Ideal Professional Setting    10
Conclusion    11
References    12
Overview & Background
Tetlock & Gardner (2016) in their book titled “Superforecasting- The Art & Science of Prediction” have undertaken discussion for understanding the super-forecasters as well as exploration of the ways in which an average individual may become one amongst the super-forecasters. Tetlock & Gardner (2016) present various key qualities with respect to super-forecasters and these include the following – [1] philosophic outlook in terms of being non-deterministic, humble, and cautious, [2] thinking style in terms of being numerate, reflective, curious and intelligent, and open-minded, [3] forecasting style in terms of being intuitive psychologist, thoughtful updaters, probabilistic, dragonfly-eyed, analytical, and pragmatic, and [4] work ethic in terms of grit and growth mindset.
Tetlock & Gardner (2016) present careful and thorough thinking, building up the argument in a slow and block-by-block manner. Tetlock & Gardner (2016) discuss on the research illustrating that significant amount experts are essentially accurate to make predictions in the extent that of a chimpanzee throwing darts at target. In this context, the most key element is that the study on chimpanzee illustrated that, however, whilst most of the experts were not highly accurate with respect to the prognostications, some of them had been, at the least in terms of shorter-range analysis —longer the timeline horizon for prediction, less accurate have been these predictions by experts. Predictions which are farther out between three and five years seem to have adverse accuracy levels equivalent to that of monkey dart-throwing allegory. Tetlock & Gardner (2016) state that forecasters who actually express the probability by way of numbers shall be forced in thinking in a highly clear manner with respect to their own relevant process. Yet the overall problem in terms of numbers shall be that they appear in being highly authoritative. In essence, individuals shall think that something could be objective fact as well as not be a subjective opinion in the instance the specific idea shall get expressed in the form of numbers. A solution for the problem can be that people can get better educated in this matter. Further, Tetlock & Gardner (2016) add that luck in addition plays some role, as well as no one and no matter their effectiveness, shall be infallible. Yet there shall be people who shall be better to undertake forecasting over future horizon as compared to others.
Susskind & Susskind (2015) state in their book “The Future of Professionals” that there appears to be two of the possible futures with respect to professions. Susskind & Susskind (2015) add that both of the stated future will depend over technology. The initial which is familiar amongst most of the professionals shall be that it shall be efficient version to a significant extent over what is available and possible today. In this version of the future, professionals from wide ranging domains employ technology, and yet the same shall be to a large extent for the purposes of streamlining as well as optimizing the conventional ways for working. Within the perceptions of economists, essentially technologies will complement the professionals with respect to the activities. The other future holds a varied proposition. Herein, to an increasing extent capable machines / system, either operating singly or else designed / operated by individuals who shall look very much unlike that of lawyers, doctors, accountants, teachers, as well as other conventional roles, in a gradual manner taking over increased number of tasks which one shall associate with to that of conventional professionals. Newer technologies, rather, in words of various economists, substituting for the professionals with respect to the stated activities. With respect to now, as well as over medium term, Susskind & Susskind (2015) anticipate that both of the futures shall be actually realized on a parallel form. As one does in present context, people shall continue in seeing examples with respect to both of the uses concerning technology. Over the longer run, though, Susskind & Susskind (2015) expects that second future shall essentially dominate. By way of technological progress, people shall determine newer as well as highly efficient approaches for solving the form of crucial problems which, conventionally, solely very specific types / forms of the professionals shall possess the ability for tackling. The same in essence, as discussed in detail by Susskind & Susskind (2015), represents the existential challenge with respect to traditional professionals, forms of the crux of this work.
Two Works – Comparative Implications
In comparing the learnings, findings, and proposals from Tetlock & Gardner (2016) and Susskind &...