Postgraduate Research Methods Assignment Prepare a proposal for your MSc Dissertation based on the guidelines and material available for the course. It should be between 1700 and 1900 words. Deadline...

RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUE – PROJECT SUCCESS & FAILURE IN ROAD CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN CAMEROON
Table of Contents
Introduction    3
Research Questions    5
Aims and Objectives    5
Literature Review    6
Methodology    11
Analysis    17
Project Failures    27
Project Success    28
Technical risk in construction industry    33
Activity Planning    34
Gantt Chart    34
Discussion    39
Question and Answers    39
Conclusion    42
References    44
Introduction
In Cameroon there are more than 16583 road accidents each year. Due to this reason, there are more than 1000 people killed annually on roads. According to the figures published by the World Health Organization estimates there are approximately 6000 people killed every year globally. There have been significant changes made in terms of number of road accidents since 2012. This was due to the Cameroon government initiatives which helped to increase the user awareness, through road monitoring system, control and enforcement activities in collaboration with the traffic guards of Cameroon. Yet there was an increase in the number of road accidents since 2008 to 2014, due to increase in the number of vehicles. Since 2014, it has been estimated that in Cameroon there were approximately 675000 vehicles which increased the severity of accidents on the roads.
Further, the human cost is huge as the economic losses are assessed to be almost 100 million CFA francs annually. This cost is nearly 1% of the GDP. Hence, if these losses are compared with the investments, then the losses can be invested in edifying around 10000 classrooms, more than 250 km of paved roads and atleast 8 referral hospitals which is sufficient to provide Cameroon with two hospitals within a period of just two years. Therefore, it is essential for Cameroon to build road and improve the road safety conditions for the safety of its citizens (UNECE, 2018).
Most of the accidents in the urban areas from 2008 till 2014 was caused due to three major reasons: these were due to the inattentiveness of the drivers and distractions (30.67%), over-speeding (19.97%) and lack of control from the drivers (18.53%). For remedying these issues there must be proper training given to the drivers, raising road awareness for the road users through various program and technologically structuring the traffic system and strengthening the sanctions with respect to the risky behaviour. There has been a review conducted by the Ministry of Transport Cameroon and United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) in association with United Nations Elections Commission of Africa (ECA) for structuring a holistic approach on the road and safety of the country. This review will also emphasize on the significance of approving and implementing the UN legal apparatuses on road safety. This will help Cameroon to provide concrete results in terms of traffic, road signs and signals, the behaviour of the drivers, the regulations for improving the road safety along with safe transportation and their inhabitants. The road network of the country in Cameroon accounts for around 85% of transport. Further, the road network in Cameroon suffers from several other issues such as poor signalling, mis markings, cracks and potholes on the roads, poor drainage system and water logging during rainfall, no sidewalks or cycle walks on the road and disorderly parking in Cameroon.
In Cameroon Yaoundé Nsimalen International Airport is the second busiest airport. The airport is situated around 27 km south of the capital Yaoundé. Further, the airport is very close to Nsimalen located in the Centre Province of Cameroon. For the renovation of the airport there is necessity to improve the roads for which the projects will include construction of control room, building posts for the security personnel, construction of the main entrance, installing car barriers for parking, edification of the patrol road, structuring the airport fence, renovating the departure hall and installation of speed bumps for slowing down the vehicle speed.
In this proposal we will discuss on the Yaoundé-Douala highway which is a road construction project and was started in October 2014 and was set to be complete within a period of 48 months. But the deadline extended for another 12 months and again for 14.5 month. Hence, Yaoundé-Douala highway road construction project was expected to be completed latest by 2021 yet the project is still incomplete. Further, the Yaoundé-Douala highway construction is a 196 km road edification and was divided into two phases. The first phase consisted of Yaoundé-Bibodi section which stretched over 60 km of which 25 km linking the national road no.3 and the second phase is Bibodi-Douala Road construction which was of 136 km length. The second phase is still in tendering process.
The aim of the Yaoundé-Douala highway project extension of roads in Cameroon was to build a 2x2 lane type infrastructure which will extend to 2x3 lanes and will be on 33.5 meters wide platforms which will have emergency lanes of 3 meters each (Mulyungi, 2021).
Hence, it needs to be evaluated if it’s the risk management techniques used by the construction industries is the cause of project failure or success with respect to the road construction of Yaoundé-Douala project in Cameroon or not. Based on this project we will be able to evaluate if the road construction industries applying the risk management techniques in Cameroon are beneficial or detrimental to the success of the road construction project.
Research Questions
The research will try to recognize the impact of risk management techniques which can have on the project outcome which is emphasized on construction project with respect to time, cost and quality which leads to successful completion of the road project without any delay. With respect to this, the research question which will be answered are as follows:
1. What are the challenges faced by the construction company while managing the risks associated with the road construction project in Yaoundé-Douala?
2. How does the risk avoidance and the transfer of risk impacts the road construction project outcomes?
3. To what extent the risk acceptance and the reduction of risk impacts the outcomes of the road construction project?
Aims and Objectives
More and more construction companies are becoming aware of the risk management significance. But the various risk management techniques which are aimed at managing the risk are either managed improperly or the personnel are not skilled and knowledgeable enough. Hence, it was determined that success was dependent on the fact that contingency plans and alternative methods for road construction projects have a high level of risk coefficient (McManus, 2014). Hence, the construction industries in Cameroon in order to become efficient with respect to time and cost must try to expand their level of controls on several projects.
Further, the aims of the project are as follows:
1. Identifying the reasons why the various risk management techniques with respect to time, cost and quality are not been properly used by the construction industry in Cameroon.
2. The construction industry is a heterogenous industry and is extremely complicated to manage. Further, it contributes highly towards the development of country’s economy. Hence, it is aimed at making the construction project more transparent.
3. The key reforms which are proposed in Cameroon’s 2035 vision plan was effective risk management for construction of the project which also included the identification of the recognized framework. This will help to enhance the policy implementation, applying the industry code of conduct and the standards in the road construction industry.
Thus, the objectives of this proposal will be as follows:
1. It will be to identify the types of risks which are associated with the road construction project.
2. Identifying the factors which are having an impact on the risk management with respect to the construction project.
3. Evaluating the effects of risk management on the construction project.
Literature Review
Cameroon is a sub-Saharan country and is very congested. It is a mid-income country with a population of 27911548 in 2022 which is an increase of 2.52% compared to 2021 (Macrotrends, 2022). The country is situated in the Atlantic Ocean and shares the border with other African countries such as Chad, Gabon, Nigeria, Central African Republic. Further, the country is endowed with rich natural heritage and resources like oil and gas, cocoa, mineral ores, coffee and cotton. Further, the country is a sparsely populated country which consists of only 40 people per square km. Douala is the state in Cameroon which has the highest population of 1338082 followed by 1299369 in Yaounde (World Population Review, 2022). It is due to this increasing population along with the rising demand of vehicles due to the reason there is necessity of highways and road for a safe and comfortable journey from one place to another in Cameroon.
The first election in Cameroon was held in the month of December 2020. The present ruling party of Cameroon is Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement. According to the constitution of 1996, with the election the decentralization process was initiated in the country. Further, the regional councillors will work with the Ministry of Decentralization and the Local Department for transferring the power and funds for allocation to all the regions of the country. Further, in the recent years there has been instances of political disturbances due to attacks from terrorist organization Boko Haram. Due to this reason more than 500000 people were being displaced, taking the lives of 400 civilians and 200 police officers.
Further, there are more than 440461 refugees immigrated in Cameroon who were mostly from the Central African Republic and Nigeria. In terms of social context, the country is very poor and lags proper education. The number of poor people in Cameroon was increased by 12% since the year 2007 to 2014 and was approximately to be at 8.1 million people. It was due to the advent of covid19 global pandemic there was loss in the income affecting the businesses leading to a sharp decline in the consumption. There were loss of jobs and severe unemployment combined with poverty which increased from 24.5% in 2019 to 25.3% in the year 2020. Further, the country in terms of Transparency International corruption perception index was ranked 149 out of 180 countries. Further, the country suffers from poor governance due to which there is restricted development and are unable to attract big investments (The World Bank, 2021).
The above are the challenges which will be faced by the Cameroon government and China First Highway Engineering Company while construction of the Yaoundé-Douala project. But it is the call of the day that Cameroon needs upgradation of its roads which is directly related to the development of the country’s infrastructure. An infrastructural development in the form of road construction is considered to be a way to develop the destination (Ravetz et al. 2013). Hence, it is through infrastructural development which helps to create new job opportunities, social facilities in the form of building schools, hospitals and the markets with respect to agricultural products in Cameroon (Pradhan and Bagchi 2013). Further, new roads help in improving the living conditions through economic opportunities, welfare of the various communities living in Africa and social development. But there are also some negativity or risks associated with the road infrastructural projects. This may be in the form of socio-economic changes in specific communities which will increase the income disparity and offers limited benefit to the poor (Wiegand et al. 2017).
Research suggests that there is direct relationship between investment in the infrastructure leads to economic development of the region. It is transport infrastructure which helps in the development of the province as well as the country. Further, this involves choosing the correct location, approximation of the amount of costs involved and is closely related to the economic development of the country. Transportation infrastructure can be in the form of building highways which acts as the backbone of any country and helps in the faster and safer delivery of goods and services between the nations. Further, it’s the highway which helps the local communities to provide employment opportunities in the underdeveloped areas (Kim and Han, 2016). Therefore, it will also be beneficial for a developing country like Cameroon which wants to enhance its road transportation system through construction of big highways. It will also enhance the standard of livings of the country. Further, it’s the international companies which purchases lands and building near the highway area to conduct their business operations smoothly. For construction of highway, water pipelines, railway services and the aviation industry the United States government expends around $4 trillion (Winston et al., 2018). Hence, it can be stated that the highway construction can be costly but can help to enhance the country’s economy in a well-integrated manner.
The construction of highway in Cameroon must be done in an organized manner, timely scheduled as any delay may have an impact on the project success (Hasanzadeh et al., 2018). Since the decision makers makes various types of decisions on a daily basis, the highway construction process becomes a complicated process. During the decision making various complicated processes are being sorted to find the optimal solution. Further, the decision makers face various circumstances which necessitates quick decisions. It’s the decision makers who adheres to the rules and regulations, various specifications and courses of actions with respect to the decision making. There are various issues which dictates complications which are outside the scope of the decision makers while construction of the highway project. It may be due to lack of information due to which the decision makers make decisions which are based on personal judgement, insight and based on the previous experiences. Hence, since these decisions are not supported with accurate data hence there are chances of human errors and biases. Further, such decisions may lead to difficulties and inefficiencies during the implementation stage (Lam et al., 2007).
The roads of a country are considered as an integral part of the transportation system. The road network of the country should be such that it will help to enhance the economy as well as the social status of the country. Further, the highways are considered as superior and faster paths being built in order to connect each nook and turnings of the cities and the districts of a country. It is the advent of modern technologies which are now used for construction of the highways. Most highways constructed by the civil engineering companies are eminent in terms of capacity, durability and strength as well as increasing the efficiency. They play a crucial role in the development and the expansion of the country and its economy. It is through development of the roads as well as construction of the highways which brings the development of a nation.
It will be a national highway which will be constructed for Yaoundé-Douala project. There will be roads which will connect major cities, districts etc. Further, the Yaoundé-Douala will be used to connect different neighbouring countries. It will also help in the exchange of goods and services along with knowledge and skills with the neighbouring countries. Yaoundé-Douala project will be a four-lane national highway and the construction as well as its post maintenance will be done by China First Highway Engineering Company. Further the four-lane national highway will have great roads which will be of high quality and will save valuable time of the travellers. Since the roads will be constructed will high quality asphalt and granules it will help to reduce the accidents on roads. Further, the road since will be of advanced quality will provide the comfortable riding facilities. It will also reduce the fuel consumption while driving the vehicles. Finally, it will help to reduce the environmental pollution such as the noise and air pollution as the highway will be open spaced and big in size (Kumar, 2018).
The amount required for the construction of the Yaoundé-Douala project will be $560 billion CFA francs. There have been instances where due to inefficient scheduling, planning, excess budget and unplanned work time the budget of the project has increased to a great extent (Dawood & Castro, 2009). The project will be financed partially by debt from commercial banks in Cameroon and partially by funding from the federal government of Cameroon. The construction of the project was based on a Public Private Partnership (PPP Model). The government of Cameroon will be able to carry out various initiatives under the project which will help to determine the success of the highway construction. The partial funding of the Yaoundé-Douala project by the federal government of Cameroon will provide institutional environment for implementing the project and a planned organizational structure. This will further help to lower the risks by guaranteeing the repayment of loan which was taken from the commercial banks in Cameroon. But there are chances that the guarantees provided by the federal government can cover the cost of financing (Flyvbjerg, Buzelius & Rothengatter, 2003).
Risk management is a tool which helps to cope with the construction risks and enables to overcome the issues related to a project failure (Edward and Bowen, 1998). Risk management is a technique which is aimed at recognition of the risks and uncertainty, determining the impact of the risks and developing a suitable management response (Uher, 2003). Hence, it is risk management which helps in determining the success and failure of the construction project (Abujnah and Eaton, (2010). Further, it’s the risk management tools which helps the client, contractor, developer as well as the suppliers for meeting their commitments and reduce the negative impacts with respect to the construction project performance in terms of cost, quality and time (Banaitiene, et al., 2011). It has also been observed that if the project risk management are properly implemented then it will enhance the project successfully and make the project more valuable. On the other hand, if the construction risks associated with the road construction are unidentified then it can lead to failures in meeting the schedule objectives. This will result in recording high rate of construction rejection with respect to the Yaoundé-Douala project.
Risks are the probability of occurrence which are ambiguous and related to undesirable events which changes the project prospects with respect to the profitability of a specified investment (Kartam and Kartam, 2001). The construction of road can be stretched for longer duration due to the design being complicated, which is placed in an abandon situation, due to financial constraints under the dynamic organizational structures (Flanagan and Norman, 1993). Further, it is improper management of risk which can impact the productivity, performance and increase the cost as well as lead to delay of the project (Odimabo and Oduoza, 2013). Also, it the risks which cannot be minimized are the key causes of project breakdown (Royer, 2000). But if the road construction project is managed properly based on a properly structured risk management process it will help in successful completion of the construction project and hence make the project a profitable one.
According to research conducted in the Nigerian construction industry it was observed that it was the lack of knowledge with respect to costs and quality management as well as the attitude of the construction participants are the factors which are responsible for management of risks in Nigeria (Aminu, 2013).
Methodology
The methodology which will be used for analysing and measuring the impact of risk management techniques on the project success and failure of the road construction industries in Cameroon will be Monte-Carlo Simulation method. We will use a probability-impact risk matrix which will be based on Qualitative and Quantitative risk analysis techniques. The probability-impact risk matrix helps to visualize the risks associated with the road construction project and use the representation to mitigate the risk. When the risk assessment matrix is designed properly it can help to identify the outcome of the events, recognize the point where the risk can be reduced, provide a graphical representation of the risk, simplify the risk management process and provide a detailed analysis with respect to high-risk analysis (Solve Xia, 2020).
Further, the data was collected was primary and secondary records. The primary data was achieved through questionnaire survey of the contractors throughout Cameroon who have vast years of experience in the road construction projects. The secondary data on the other hand, was collected from journals, articles and various research papers. The questionnaire was constructed with the objective of collecting the respondents’ opinions with respect to the various types of risks which are linked with the road construction project. Further, the respondents were being requested to tick on the options based on the questions available on the questionnaire.
Risk is involved in different stages while construction of the highway project. These risks may be in the form of injury, losses or destruction or a combination of all. The risk evaluation is a process which helps in the identification of the risks, classification of the risks and risk evaluation. During construction of Yaoundé-Douala there may be various risks which may be due to the contracting parties to the project such as the project contractors, designers, suppliers and the sub-contractors. This may also lead to poor performance of the project, delays in completion of the project and involves huge amount of costs.
The various objectives with respect to the construction of the highway project and its significance can be enumerated in the following manner:
1. It will help to measure the various risks associated with the construction of highway project.
2. It helps to recognize and categorize the various risks which are involved in the construction of the highway project.
3. Finally analyse the various risks which are linked with the construction of highway projects.
The risks will be analysed using various factors in construction of the Yaoundé-Douala project. Further, the risks will then be ranked according to the adverse impact associated with the highway construction project. The risk which will be ranked 1 will have greater adverse impact then the risks which are ranked 2 and 3. The risk assessment will help in the planning of risks and management with respect to the Yaoundé-Douala project. Further, the risk assessment will help in improving the Yaoundé-Douala project performances as well as control the cost and the project quality. This will also help in completing the tasks as per the schedule planned for completion of the project. Further, there are several risks associated with the project such as inefficient project planning, lack of standardization and integrity, delays while project approvals and unexpected ground utilities.
The risks will be measured on a 5-point Likert scale where 1 will be considered as low risky and 5 will be considered as high risky. The risks will be analysed based on the adverse impact on the adverse effect of highway construction project. the various risks which are being identified with respect to the Yaoundé-Douala project can be classified as follows:
Construction risks: These are the risks which are associated with the construction of the Yaoundé-Douala project. It’s the contractors and subcontractors who causes these risks. For keeping the construction work on the right platform, the contractors involved in the project must be well experienced. They must plan the project well and make valid construction programs before initiation of the highway project. further, there can be risks like heavy rains causing delays, the market condition is uncertain, issues with productivity and time which are during the construction phase.
Design phase: The risks in the design of the highway project may result from issues like differences and defects in the design. These risks may be due to uncertainty in the horizontal configuration, the indirect costs are uncertain, the basic parameters while designing are not constructed properly. There must be an effective communication through meetings at regular intervals without hampering the scheduled tasks with the designers of the project.
Political risks: The Yaoundé-Douala project will be constructed in Cameroon which is a highly troubled country. Further, there may be excessive bureaucracy at the administrative level which may not be communicated by the contractors. Further, these risks are out of the control of the stakeholders who are associated with the project. Hence, it is essential that the federal government of Cameroon must create a friendly environment and a congenial atmosphere where the approvals with respect to Yaoundé-Douala project will be sanctioned without any bureaucracy.
Organizational risks: These risks will be in the form of lack of skilled labour, insufficient knowledge of the project team. Further, due to lack of skilled labour there may be delay in the project, issues may arise with respect to the safety and security of the workers and meagre workmanship.
Accidental risks: The accidental risks may be in the form of unanticipated damages while project construction. There may be possibility of accidents in the project construction site. This may be in the form of accident of machineries, accidental disasters and over exertion which can be devastating for the Yaoundé-Douala project progression.
Uncertain market situation: These conditions may be in the form of inflation in the price of the construction material and is considered as related to external situation. There will be constant changes in the prices of the construction materials due to inflation and leads to huge fluctuations in the demand and supply of the materials. The risks are unavoidable and hence must choose a typical form of contract. In order to avoid these risks, the contractor must fix a price in advance which will lower the costs associated with the risks.
Time and fund: The time and costs are quite closely associated with each other. This leads to the project being lengthy and will increase the cost of the project. This type of risk is known as quantitative risk. It is during the extreme cases when the costs and the time overruns. This can have a serious impact on the economic viability of the project and make the potential investment unsustainable.
Utilities: These includes the costs associated with the electricity, gas, water and fuel which are associated with the project. If there is any shortage of the electricity or water there can be severe problem for carrying on the Yaoundé-Douala project. There is shortage of water in Cameroon and throughout Africa. Hence, it may be possible that the ground water is prohibited by the government for construction of highway project in Cameroon.
Further, it is the feasibility stage which helps to analyse the proposed project and determining if the project is eligible for scheduling or not. The feasibility stage can be further divided into financial and operational phases. At the financial stage there need to have sponsors and if the proposed project is financially viable or should be rejected. There must be a cost benefit evaluation model developed by the highway constructing company China First Highway Engineering Company in collaboration with the federal government of Cameroon. Further, this model will use analytical network which will consist of qualitative and quantitative attributes (Dikmen et al., 2007). The sponsors on the other hand will look for choosing among the best alternative which will help to easily compensate the contractors. After choosing an appropriate strategy by the sponsor for compensating, they will be then interested in the pricing behaviour with respect to the Yaoundé-Douala project. Bidding behaviour of the contractors as well as the impact of the same on the market prices are crucial for the decision-making purpose (Lo et al., 2007). Hence, there must be a proper decision-making model structured with respect to pricing the high infrastructure (Gharaibeh and Shirazi, 2009).
The sponsors of the project will ensure that the proposed project will be able to easily resolve the targeted issues and meet the goals easily. It ensures that the specific project goals are achieved post the completion of the project. Thus, there can be a trade-off evaluation which will help to estimate the benefits of the project which will help the decision-makers of the company (Roshandeh et al., 2015).
The second phase will be conceptual phase which is associated with the design of the optimal project strategies, evaluate the various concepts, prepare the cost estimates in order to approve the feasibility of the project. This phase can be subdivided into four categories which are appointing bids from the contractors, selection of the contractor, procurement and finally estimating the costs and budgeting of the Yaoundé-Douala project.
Contracting phase: During this phase, the sponsor of the project must select the strategy which will be used for contracting prior to commencement of the project. If the sponsor chooses incorrect contracting strategies, then it can lead to negative outcomes. It can be adverse weather conditions with respect to construction of highway project which can increase the cost of the project. Further, there can be disputes between the stakeholders associated with the project. These types of risks can be lowered if the project sponsor which is China First Highway Engineering Company and the federal government of Cameroon which can develop a decision support tool for evaluating the various scenarios with respect to the weather and the possible negative impacts (Apipattanavis et al., 2010). It can be through government guarantees which can attract private companies for construction of the highway project under Public Private Partnership model (Wibowo and Kochendoerfer, 2011). Further, the contractors must properly utilize the utility lines and will allow better management of the utility relocation.
Selection of contractor: For the construction of the four-lane highway project in Cameroon, it is essential that the government must choose the best contractor which is very essential for the completion of the project in a successful manner (Afshar et al., 2017). If on the other hand, the project is unable to choose an appropriate contractor then there are possibilities of cost overrun, delay in the completion of the scheduled tasks and poor quality of highway (Awwad and Ammoury, 2019). It has been found that the client, in this case the Cameroon government accepting the lowest bid contractor policy can sometimes lead to poor performances (Herbsman and Ellis, 1992). Hence, it is the responsibilities of the project sponsor to choose the best bid and reject the contractors who are unskilled and have less experience in highway construction. There must be a data-mining process developed for estimating the costs and predicting the potential best bid with respect to the four-lane highway project. Further, the sponsor must evaluate the past performances of the contractors and develop a rating system which can deliver a quality assurance with respect to their work.
Procurement: At this stage the sponsor must choose an appropriate project delivery method so as to reduce poor project performance and the risk of project failure. There must be new techniques developed in order to enquire the qualitative criteria such as the cost performance and the project delivery method. There must be a performance analysis technique used in order to maintain the project performance level (Noorzai, 2020).
Costing & Budgeting: This phase involves choosing the correct cost for the highway project. There should not be any wastage due to overestimation of the costs. Further, if the cost is underestimated then it can delay the progress of the project. Hence, there must be a specific database developed by the project sponsor in collaboration with the industry experts for estimating the preliminary costs associated with the construction of the highway project. Therefore, if the bridge construction cost can be estimated precisely, then it can help to allocate the funds in an effective manner. Further, it is through forecasting the future cash flows with respect to the highway project which can help to reduce the precisely make the budgeting process. But the process is extremely complex and difficult to analyse. If the capital value of the high project and the costs involved are correctly estimated by using a structure, then it can help to perfectly estimate the actual cost which will be required for the high project (Wibowo and Alfen, 2013). The project sponsor must recognize the grants, debts and equities necessary for making a financial budgeting decision. Further, there will be people and houses near the construction sites which will be demolished...