About this Assignment The purpose of financial forecasts is to assess current and future fiscal conditions to inform policy and other important decisions. Financial forecasts are fiscal management...

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Answered Same DayApr 21, 2021

Answer To: About this Assignment The purpose of financial forecasts is to assess current and future fiscal...

Shakeel answered on Apr 27 2021
161 Votes
Answer 1
· The stock price trend is in upward direction
· The actual growth rate is estimated to be 5% while the historical estimate is 3%
· The bust point is followed by Bubble and thus, a upward resistance is observed.
· There would be moderate
growth in stock’s price in due course of time
· AT the price of $125, another resistance might be observed.
· With actual growth rate, the stock price may touch to $150 level in next couple of years.
Historical data is generally used to know the trend of stock’s price and on the basis of that trend; the future’s stock price can be estimated. Several techniques are used for forecasting like Moving Average (MA) method, Exponential moving average method (EMA), Relative Index method etc. Apart from these, technical analysis is done and different stock price patterns are studied to forecast like Bottom and top, double bottom, Head and Shoulder, Saucer, Support and resistance etc. The regression model based on the historical price also provides a tool to estimate the stock price in controlled situation. Dow Theory and Industry Life Cycle are also some of the innovative tool of forecasting.
Assumptions used in forecasting are as follows:
· Stock price movement follows the trend in normal economical circumstances.
· No political or social factors are considered.
· Market is in semi-strong or strong form
· The current trend will continue in future.
· Expected macro economical changes are not taken into account
The rationale behind such assumption is the forecasted stock price trend is mainly based upon the historical prices where no such future events are taken into account. Therefore, the stock price movement is forecasted only on the basis of its past movements with mathematical calculations and methods.
If assumptions are taken differently, of course the stock price trend will change in future. The different assumption might be based upon the economical and political condition or company’s future prospects in respect of its earnings and growth. Thus, a more in-depth analysis would be required for forecasting. Fundamental analysis, common size analyses are some of the tools that can be used for forecasting purpose.
Since the stock price is in upward trend, one can invest for good return over long term. In short run, a large fluctuation in price can be observed and thus not suitable for investment but long term trend is positive and upward, one can invest for 8-10 years for good return. As far as risk and return over...
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