A potential issue with the long hit is that the ball might land in the water, which is not a good outcome. Miguel thinks that if the long hit is successful, his expected value improves to 4.2....

A potential issue with the long hit is that the ball might land in the water, which is not a good outcome. Miguel thinks that if the long hit is successful, his expected value improves to 4.2. However, if the long hit fails and the ball lands in the water, his expected value would be worse and increases to 5.4.

(c) Suppose the probability of a successful long hit is 0.4. Which approach, the short hit or the long hit, is better in terms of improving the expected value of the score? Justify your answer.