A lifetime X (in years) of a particular machine is modeled by an exponential distribution with unknown failure rate parameter 6'. The lifetimes of XI= 5. X2= 6. and X3= 4 are observed. and assume that an expert believes that 6' should have exponential distribution as well and that, on average should be 1/3.
(i) VL-rite down the lILE of 6' for those observations.
(ii) Elicit a prior according to the expert's beliefs.
(iii) For the prior in (ii). find the posterior. Is the problem conjugate?
(iv) Find the Baves estimator 8Boyes. and compare it with the LlLE estimator from (i). Discuss.
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