A forecaster is equally happy with the prospect of receiving $1 for sure, or $5 if freezing temperatures occur on the following night. What is the forecaster’s subjective probability for frost? For...

A forecaster is equally happy with the prospect of receiving $1 for sure, or $5 if freezing temperatures occur on the following night. What is the forecaster’s subjective probability for frost?

For the forecast verification data in Table 8.2,

a. Reconstruct the joint distribution, p( y_i, o_j), i = 1, ..., 12, j = 1, 2.

b. Compute the unconditional (sample climatological) probability p(o₁).