7. QUESTION: A six-sided die has four green and two red faces and is balanced so that each face is equally likely to come up. The die will be rolled several times. You must choose one of the following...

Extracted text: 7. QUESTION: A six-sided die has four green and two red faces and is balanced so that each face is equally likely to come up. The die will be rolled several times. You must choose one of the following three sequences of colours; you will win £25 if the first rolls of the die give the sequence that you have chosen. G R R R. R GR R. R G R R R R R Without making any calculations, explain which sequence you choose. (In a psychological experiment, 63% of 260 students who had not studied probability chose the second sequence. This is evidence that our intuitive understanding of probability is not very accurate. This and other similar experiments are reported by A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment, Psychological Review 90 (1983), pp. 293-315.) RRG