Answer To: Individual Assignment (25%) • Submit your assignment electronically via the Turnitin Assignment tool...
Ishmeet Singh answered on Oct 26 2021
According to the Ques. Following data was provided:
PROBLEM STATEMENT:
Assume you have AUD 500,000 cash to be invested in an equal-weighted portfolio on January 2, 2020 for 3 months. The portfolio will comprise four Australian stocks: WPL, COE, OSH and BPT, all of which are from the oil exploration and production sector.
Step 1:
We formulated the IRR of each stock individually based on the formula:
(Current Year Rate/ Previous Year Rate) -1 in percentage to yield the following outputs.
According to the Question:
AUD $500,000 cash to be invested in an equal-weighted portfolio on January 2, 2020 for 3 months. The portfolio will comprise four Australian stocks: WPL, COE, OSH and BPT, all of which are from the oil exploration and production sector.
Therefore stock return regression with respect to Currency return rate keeping the Australian currency Indices as benchmark goes by:
According to the graph it shows that the relation between Stocks and Index is “+”ve slope based furthermore with 1% increase in the Stock fund there is a .75% rise in Index Benchmark. Also, there are huge deviations from the regression line which means the interdependencies of these funds depends on more factors and only 2.74% of dependency is captured by this relation.
The above fund is more like a hedging fund and returns maybe conservative from long terms prospects.
MOUNTAIN CHART (Stocks vs. Index Currency Bench)
Therefore while checking the R square value it was found evident that the independent variable is not able to justify or define dependent variable which shows high level of standard deviation there by making the profile of the investment highly vulnerable to risk.
Returns from the traditional stock are marked as below:
DASHBOARD:
We formulated the average returns of all the 4 stocks and identified the potential risk in the portfolio based on the following factors:
Limiting the investments to single domain.
Limiting the volatility/Beta dependent on 1 domain only.
High risk of loss formulated on the basis of no. of times negative returns are incurred.
Sharpe Ratio is less than 1.
As per the theory Sharpe Ratio is obtained:
Subtracting the risk free rate from the portfolio returns allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. The risk-free rate of return is the return on an investment with zero risk, meaning it's the return investors could expect for taking no risk. The yield for a Australian treasury bonds, for example, could be used as the risk-free rate.
Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.
Takeaways:
1. Adjusts portfolios past performance or future expectations based on the risk appetite.
2. Greater the value better is the fund
3. Based on the assumption that returns are normally distributed.
Conclusion:
Based on the data analysis performed in the excel it is evident that portfolio underperforms the traditional fund. Basically, the Sharpe ratio gives a measure of where the curve will switch the slope line at what deviation the more the value is the more is the expectation of arriving at the desired returns.
WPL.AX
COE.AX
OSH.AX
BPT.AX
AUD
Return
Average
-0.13%
0.04%
-0.26%
0.02%
-0.04%
Variance
0.053%
0.084%
0.128%
0.111%
0.003%
Standard Deviaton
2.30%
2.91%
3.57%
3.33%
0.58%
Beta (Slope)
0.71
0.40
1.38
0.54
1.00
Therefore, Beta Portfolio
0.76
Risk of Loss
45.20%
40.25%
47.06%
41.18%
SHARPE RATIO
Rf (Risk free rate)
0.8%
From Govt. Yield Bonds
Rm (Portfolio return)
2.10%
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/stock-market
Standard Deviation
3.03%
~ average of portfolio std. dev.
Sharpe Ratio
0.4
which is a fairly conservative investment, not fruitful
Recommendations for Hedge Funds Basis:
Basically a future contract strategy is adopted by some of the firms and corporates as a risk mitigation strategy in their investment portfolio.
Generally, it safeguards the organization against unfavorable price movement.
For example if the risk manager forecast that the future contract of oil is selling at 35$ per barrel against 20$ per barrel at present it makes sense for the organization to enter into a long future contract in oil.
Therefore, main rationale is to safeguard the investment portfolio under uncertainty of returns or an environment of high volatility in case of the underlying assets.
Problem Statement: For a better informed hedge, you believe it is simultaneously necessary to align with the expected future market state of the principal commodity. Using the term structure of futures contracts for the futures contract you selected above, assess the market risk over the three months period.
TERM STRUCTURE OF FUTURE CONTRACTS:
Simulation:
SPOT RATE FORWARD
2% 0m1m: 2%
3% 1m1m: 1.03^2/1.02-1 = 4 %
3.5% 2m1m: 1.035^3/1.03^2-1 =4.5%
Accrual of $ 500,000 investment considering both the cases:
FV = PV*(1+r) ^ n
· 500,000*(1.02)^3 Case 1
530604
· 500,000*(1.02)*1.04*1.045 Case 2 Futures
554268
FUTURES RETURN DASHBOARD
Annualized
Return
6.0%
Variance
0.9%
Standard Deviation
30.6%
SHARPE RATIO
Rf (Risk free rate)
0.8%
Rm (Portfolio return)
6.01%
Standard Deviation
30.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.2
Still better as compared to traditional
Following is the Hedging Fund Portfolio taken for analysis:
1. CREDIT SUISSE HEDGE FUND
2. CREDIT SUISSE HEDGE LONG/SHORT EQTY
3. CREDIT SUISSE HEDGE DEDI SHORT BIAS
4. CREDIT SUISSE HEDGE GLOBAL MACRO
5. CREDIT SUISSE HEDGE EMERG. MARKETS
6. CREDIT SUISSE HEDGE CONV ARBITRAGE
7. CREDIT SUISSE HEDGE FXD INC ARBT
8. CREDIT SUISSE H EQT MKT NEUTRAL
9. CREDIT SUISSE HEDGE RISK ARBITRAGE
10. CREDIT SUISSE HEDGE DISTRESSED
11. CREDIT SUISSE HEDGE MANAGED FUT
Alternative Investments are basically the means of adding a sort of a diversification to a portfolio and help in mitigating the risk associated with the investments.
Mechanics of alternative investments goes by:
1. Liquidity
2. Price Transparency
3. Hidden Charges
4. Tax Rebate
5. Lock in Period
Yes, incentive fee does influence the behavior of the manager as it makes him/her more responsible for the portfolio considering long term aspects most often these charges are in the form of mortality and other hidden charges.
Issues can be resolved by undertaking these policies in an authoritative regulator where the charges can be standardized and auditing measures can safeguard competition as well associated with the domain.
Alternative investments are however getting more & more popular day by day for investors. Proponents of these nontraditional portfolio is able to maintain the average investor will now have the access to all his assets not correlated rather smoothened to the stock market, offering diversification and potentially a source of higher returns when compared to traditional investments like stocks, and bonds. Alternatives are sometimes although complex and often viable to higher risk than traditional investments to which most individual investors are accustomed depending on the risk taking appetite.
According to the graph it shows that the relation between Benchmark and other hedge funds. Also, there are less deviations from the regression line which means the interdependencies of these funds depends more on benchmark factors and thus is more reliable and average 48% of dependency is captured by this relation based on individual R square value captured.
The above fund is more like a hedging fund and returns maybe conservative and thus more reliable from long terms prospects.
Problem Statement: Hedge your portfolio using the minimum variance hedge ratio.
At the end of the period, close all positions and evaluate the effectiveness of your hedge
CONCLUSION:
As per the calculation of min. variance hedge ratio
Correlation:
0.52
Std Dev of Spot rate
27.55%
Std. Dev. Of Futures
14.50%
Minimum Variance Hedge
Ratio
0.99
Optimal no. of contracts
500,000/ Value of each contract * Min. Variance Hedge ratio
1. Based on the selected hedge fund in replacement of traditional reason because in same beta the futures contract provides less volatility and better Sharpe ratio.
2. However, my recommendation is definitely a more diverse portfolio with investments in commodities, real estate funds and PE/VC contracts.
3. Based on the data analysis performed in the excel it is evident that portfolio outperforms the traditional fund. Basically, the Sharpe ratio gives a measure of where the curve will switch the slope line at what deviation the more the value is the more is the expectation of arriving at the desired returns.
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Traditional Stocks vs Index Currency
Traditional Stocks vs Index -5.994815294879996E-3 1.1354420113542929E-3 1.6823354774864185E-2 1.7623363544813531E-2 1.6786973308713371E-4 2.2309936502488359E-2 5.0017247326663572E-3 9.9285838704057383E-3 -5.1984058222143137E-3 -3.7845948649549932E-2 -1.9453980709498109E-2 -1.0514396635392997E-2 -8.341353865896628E-3 -3.8556446637877939E-2 -3.2282859338970127E-3 -1.2298815669602225E-2 -9.7729664712074005E-3 5.7462573718434218E-3 -1.9619680048293953E-3 6.6848982072318375E-3 6.5759290411377957E-3 4.609002919035099E-3 -8.982947624847748E-3 3.8208772734220631E-3 -8.9366858527719639E-3 -3.0284675953962115E-4 -3.4706503696996238E-3 1.8140589569159982E-3 -8.9887640449438644E-3 -1.3464991023339756E-3 -4.3199761656487201E-3 0 -7.4426912771652365E-4 -2.8202464004749572E-3 3.5751526888125884E-3 4.0382889620103057E-3 2.0983213429255354E-3 -8.6181277860327699E-3 -2.2238695329873659E-3 1.1874721686211398E-3 6.8749065909430307E-3 0 -4.1672867986307649E-3 -5.0347993484376463E-3 -1.3309671694764491E-3 2.9585798816555986E-4 -9.9589923842998695E-3 -2.6292725679228912E-3 2.9222676797191482E-4 0 -4.0745052386496061E-3 0 -3.7692084662219738E-3 -5.7954216169231465E-4 2.8985507246392928E-4 -4.345936549327023E-4 2.8981307056952232E-4 6.4168003500073567E-3 -1.1653313911144103E-3 -4.3680838672099931E-4 -1.0232021905173694E-2 -1.7263703064308578E-3 -6.0060060060059817E-3 -3.9880358923228831E-3 3.8604518158420476E-3 2.4365773254981793E-3 4.60763138948872E-3 3.7577684636509456E-3 -1.4450867052018257E-4 -2.8893383415207197E-4 3.4792693534357877E-3 2.0337013364322143E-3 4.6701692936368389E-3 2.9197080291964994E-4 -4.9389889599069647E-3 1.3090909090909264E-3 -4.7770700636942109E-3 4.9461739889438139E-3 9.5461888676753315E-3 -1.9055995309295026E-3 -2.3398654577361233E-3 7.3174301185408019E-4 -2.3361074609431487E-3 4.3821209465377819E-4 4.2540707055889193E-3 7.8356002365462807E-3 -5.9101654846327456E-4 -1.0332103321033514E-3 -1.7680860468543003E-3 1.4755791648222161E-3 -1.3262599469495706E-3 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