2.8 Japanese motor vehicle production for 1947–1989 is given in Table 2-22. (a) Plot the data in a time plot. What features of the data indicate a transformation may be appropriate? (b) Transform...

2.8
Japanese motor vehicle production for 1947–1989 is given in Table 2-22.

(a)
Plot the data in a time plot. What features of the data indicate a transformation may be appropriate?

(b)
Transform the data using logarithms and do another time plot.

(c)
Calculate forecasts for the transformed data for each year from 1948 to 1990 using Na¨ıve Forecast 1.

(d)
Compute the forecast errors and calculate the MSE and MAPE from these errors.

(e)
Transform your forecast for 1990 back to the original scale by find the exponential of your forecast in
(c). Add the forecast to your graph.

(f)
From the graphs you have made, can you suggest a better forecasting method?

(g)
The world motor vehicle market was greatly affected by the oil crisis in 1973–1974. How did it affect Japanese motor vehicle production? If this information could be included in the forecasts, how would it affect the values of the MSE and MAPE?