1. “Identify a relevant time series for the visitors arriving to Australia from your airline’s home country (for at least the last 20 years) which may be useful in generating the forecasts required by your airline. You may merge time series if you deem this is necessary. Justify your choice/s.”“Data should be available through the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).”“Provide a line chart of the relevant time series for approximately the last 20 years.”2. “Comment in general on the characteristics of the time series line chart. What systematic components are evident in the time series? Explain your answer.”
“Identify a relevant time series for the visitors arriving to Australia from your airline’s home country (for at least the last 20 years) which may be useful in generating the forecasts required by your airline. You may merge time series if you deem this is necessary. Justify your choice/s.” “Data should be available through the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).” “Provide a line chart of the relevant time series for approximately the last 20 years.” “Comment in general on the characteristics of the time series line chart. What systematic components are evident in the time series? Explain your answer.” “Confirm the presence of the systematic components of the time series using relevant tools and measures. Explain your answer.” “Outline the economic and environmental factors or circumstances which are likely to have influenced the characteristics or components of the time series. Will these factors or circumstances apply to the relevant forecasting period? Explain your answer.” “Without applying a decomposition, apply an appropriate method in EXCEL to smooth (remove randomness) the chosen time series for the last 4 years to help further identify the relevant systematic components. Explain what you have done.” “From the results of the above smoothing, provide a time series line chart comparing the original time series with the generated smoothed values. Comment on your smoothing.” “Include the forecasts from #10 as part of your line chart above.” “Perform the appropriate tests for whether your model has captured all the systematic components and/or whether the errors are random. Explain your answer.” “Do the results in #6 and #7 suggest any re-evaluation or modification, if at all? Explain your answer.” “Using the results of the smoothing method you applied, provide numerical estimates for the underlying systematic components (for example, if a trend is observed provide a relevant trend equation and/or if seasonality is observed provide estimates...
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